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FLUOR CORP (FLR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $4.26B, up from $3.82B in Q4 2023; GAAP diluted EPS was $10.57 boosted by $2.105B equity method earnings from NuScale deconsolidation, while adjusted EPS was $0.48; consolidated segment profit rose to $206M .
  • Full-year operating cash flow reached $828M (best since 2015), cash and equivalents ended at $2.83B, and the company repurchased $125M of shares in Q4 with $300M planned for 2025 .
  • 2025 guidance introduced: adjusted EBITDA $575–$675M, adjusted EPS $2.25–$2.75, tax rate 30–35%; management indicated $450–$500M operating cash flow and Energy Solutions margins of 3.5–4.5% for 2025, with back-half weighting as ES “reloads” and Urban ramps .
  • Strategic/catalyst updates: LNG Canada >95% complete and on track for first cargo mid-2025 despite insulation challenges; master agreement signed with a major data center client; CEO transition to Jim Breuer effective May 1, 2025; NuScale monetization discussions ongoing .
  • Street consensus (SPGI) for Q4 2024 EPS/revenue was unavailable at the time of writing due to data limits; estimate comparisons will be updated when accessible.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Urban Solutions revenue ramp and backlog growth: Q4 Urban revenue $1.999B vs $1.420B YoY; FY Urban profit $304M and ending backlog $17.7B (+20% YoY), reflecting life sciences, mining & metals project ramps .
  • Cash generation and capital return: FY operating cash flow $828M, cash/marketable securities $3.0B (+14% YoY); Q4 share repurchases $125M with $300M targeted for 2025 .
  • Management positioning for growth: “Data centers will be a significant engine for our growth,” with a new master agreement and early-stage projects; portfolio majority reimbursable supports risk-adjusted returns .

What Went Wrong

  • New awards slowed: Q4 new awards $2.308B vs $7.608B prior year; FY new awards $15.1B vs $19.5B prior year, driving backlog decline to $28.5B from $29.4B .
  • Energy Solutions headwinds: 2024 ES profit down ($256M vs $381M) due to schedule challenges/reduced productivity on a large late-stage project; ES backlog fell to $7.6B (from $9.7B) .
  • Legacy/legal provision: $116M provision tied to an old infrastructure JV verdict; management is pursuing options to eliminate most or all of the provision .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$4.227 $4.094 $4.260
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.97 $0.31 $10.57
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.85 $0.51 $0.48
Total Segment Profit ($USD Millions)$194 $117 $206
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$165 $124 $154

Segment breakdown (Q4 vs prior year):

SegmentQ4 2023 Revenue ($USD Billions)Q4 2023 Segment Profit ($MM) & MarginQ4 2024 Revenue ($USD Billions)Q4 2024 Segment Profit ($MM) & Margin
Urban Solutions$1.420 $147; 10.4% $1.999 $81; 4.1%
Energy Solutions$1.422 $26; 1.8% $1.520 $63; 4.1%
Mission Solutions$0.646 $31; 4.8% $0.654 $45; 6.9%
Other$0.332 $(119); NM $0.087 $17; 19.5%

KPIs and backlog/new awards trajectory:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Backlog ($USD Billions)$32.304 $31.319 $28.484
New Awards ($USD Billions)$3.098 $2.699 $2.308
Backlog Reimbursable (%)81% 80% 79%
Backlog Outside U.S. (%)53% 56% 55%
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Billions)$2.629 $2.912 $2.829
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$282 (Q2) $330 (Q3)

Non-GAAP adjustments: Q4 adjusted EPS removes equity method earnings from NuScale, FX, ICA Fluor embedded derivative impacts, and certain G&A items; adjusted EPS was $0.48 vs GAAP EPS $10.57 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPSFY 2024$2.50–$3.00 (Aug 2) $2.55–$2.75 (Nov 8) Tightened/maintained
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024$625–$675M (Aug 2) $525–$575M (Nov 8) Lowered
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$2.25–$2.75 New
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$575–$675M New
Effective Tax RateFY 202530–35% New
Operating Cash FlowFY 2025$450–$500M (discussion) New
Energy Solutions Segment MarginFY 20253.5–4.5% (discussion) New
Share RepurchasesFY 2025$300M planned New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Previous)Q3 2024 (Previous)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
AI/Data CentersBuilding relationships; expect growth 1H25; largely reimbursable; U.S. power need ~35GW by 2030 Programmatic opportunities; modularization work; umbrella master agreement pursuit Master agreement signed; early stage colocation project ($0.5–$1B); targeting hyperscale; “significant engine for growth” Accelerating
Supply ChainEmphasis on global execution centers and supply chain capabilities New flexible execution model across Philippines/Poland/India; focus on supply chain as success driver Tight turbine OEM supply (sold out until 2028); need careful deal shaping; supply chain central to power/data center delivery Heightened focus
LNG CanadaTurned over 1/3 of systems; refrigerants import mid-Aug >95% complete; start-up ops; first cargo targeted 2025; tracking to expectations Train 1 in final commissioning; insulation delays mitigated by added labor; first cargo mid-2025 on track Steady/near finish
NuScale MonetizationPossible deconsolidation; preferential rights; supportive of SMR Deconsolidation gain expected in Q4; H1’25 action to capture value; strong SMR demand Deconsolidation recorded; detailed negotiations ongoing; aim for long-term monetization and revenue stream Progressing, patient
Energy SolutionsES profit $75M; late-stage project impacts; pivot to front-end ES profit $50M; delays/cancellations; feed pipeline; power/nuclear prospects ES Q4 profit $63M; 2025 margins 3.5–4.5% with early-year absorption friction; reload via FEED Transitional
Government/MissionDOE/DoD awards; equity-method programs >$5B annual not in revenue Hanford notice; FEMA task orders; backlog $3.1B Backlog $2.7B; 8-month Portsmouth extension; FEMA task orders in FL/GA/VA; mission critical continuity expected Stable
Macro/PolicyADVANCE Act; nuclear opportunities Clear election outcome aiding CapEx certainty; regional ET dynamics New U.S. administration EO themes favor energy, LNG, permitting, minerals, AI infrastructure; constructive across segments Supportive

Management Commentary

  • “We are establishing adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 of $575 to $675 million and adjusted EPS of $2.25 to $2.75 per share. Estimates for 2025 assume a tax rate of 30 to 35%” .
  • “Data centers will be a significant engine for our growth… we signed a master agreement with a major data center company… colocation between $0.5–$1B; hyperscalers multiple billions” .
  • “We are on track to support the client’s target to ship first cargoes by middle of 2025” (LNG Canada) .
  • “Book-to-bill [is] significantly above 1 in 2025” .
  • “Our portfolio is majority reimbursable… focus on proper returns on a risk‑adjusted basis” .
  • CEO transition: “It is now the right time for me to transition into the role of Executive Chairman and pass the CEO role on to Jim Breuer” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Energy Solutions margins/back-half weighting: Early-year absorption friction as ES resources pivot to Urban Solutions; margins expected to normalize as 2025 progresses .
  • LNG Canada cost/milestones: Insulation challenge mitigated by added labor; Train 1 commissioning progressing; first cargo mid-2025 on track; project tracking to management expectations .
  • Operating cash flow guidance and drivers: $450–$500M OCF for 2025 absorbs ~$200M legacy funding; offsets include JV distributions (principally Canada) .
  • NuScale monetization timing: Detailed negotiations ongoing for long-term monetization/revenue stream; SMR demand strong; patience required in nuclear commercialization .
  • Data center cycle: Early innings; programmatic relationships; Fluor’s power generation capability (thermal/nuclear) a differentiator to meet massive U.S. power demand for data centers .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to API limits at the time of this report; as such, beat/miss vs Street cannot be assessed and will be updated when accessible.*
  • Given management’s 2025 guidance and commentary (back-end loaded year, ES margin friction early, Urban ramp), near-term estimate adjustments may tilt toward lower 1H25 EPS with stronger 2H25 cadence; OCF guide $450–$500M and $300M buybacks provide support to capital return narratives .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Adjusted results matter: Q4 GAAP EPS was inflated by NuScale accounting; focus on adjusted EPS ($0.48) and adjusted EBITDA ($154M) to gauge core performance .
  • Urban Strength vs ES Transition: Urban Solutions continues to drive growth (life sciences, mining, data centers) while ES reloads with FEED and targets power/nuclear; expect back-half weighted 2025 .
  • Cash/Capital Return: Strong cash generation and JV distributions underpin $300M 2025 buybacks; watch April 2 strategy update for further capital allocation detail .
  • LNG Canada nearing inflection: Commissioning milestones and mid-2025 cargo timing remain on track; final commercial resolution could be a catalyst .
  • Data center optionality: New master agreement and integrated power capabilities position Fluor for hyperscale opportunities; monitor booking conversion and power-supply deals .
  • Leadership transition: CEO handoff to Jim Breuer (May 1) and CFO succession to John Regan signal continuity with a “grow and execute” focus—expect emphasis on project delivery and margin discipline .
  • Legal/legacy watch: The $116M provision and legacy project funding ($~200M in 2025 plan) remain overhangs but are being actively managed; less P&L volatility expected going forward .

*S&P Global consensus data was unavailable at time of writing due to daily request limits.